Fluffy Mackerel Pudding

I don't think so. I see Obama holding all the Gore states, plus New Hampshire, which is the only state Kerry won and Gore didn't, plus Colorado. That makes 273. Ohio and Virginia are also fairly likely as a cushion, which could be needed for Michigan.

That's not to say that either side won't win 300 electoral votes, but I think it's more likely the popular vote will remain close, in which case I stand by the above.

Edited Date: 2008-08-15 06:52 pm (UTC)

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And note: 269 will probably be enough, which means swapping Michigan for Virginia doesn't lose it. Nor does losing New Hampshire while getting none of my cushion states (but holding Michigan).

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I don't think Virginia is actually in play, I think that's a pipe dream. i don't see him carrying Colorado, and I don't think the Midwestern states that Kerry carried are as locked as polls would have us believe.

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Re Colorado: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/16/16825/8416/570/568960

I agree that Michigan is not a lock. Nor, for that matter, is New Hampshire. The 2008 map looks much more like 2000 than it does 2004.

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wellgull.livejournal.com

Based on what exactly? I mean, aside from the right's notorious skill at rigging elections.

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McCain's was previously unable to convince the base he was sufficiently their man and was only barely able to dissociate himself from Bush. In the past weeks, he has almost entirely escaped Bush, and has picked up everyone he needs in the religious core.

In other words, he has the entire 04 bloc + people who wouldn't vote for Bush at this stage but still consider themselves republicans + closet racists dems (a constituency I think everyone is undercounting).

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wellgull.livejournal.com

Hrm. I tend to take most polls with a grain of salt before it's the actual one... we'll try again in two weeks, I'd guess.

(Of course, the actual one, I don't necessarily trust to be that accurate either...)

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arcane-the-sage.livejournal.com

You're making a rather large assumption that McCain is not going to have a health episode before Nov that will remind voters of his age don't you think?

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In which case his VP pick gets a sympathy boosts and wins it in a walk.

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trinityvixen.livejournal.com

I'd like to see how the debates go before I entirely despair. But I'm sorta dreading exactly this because it doesn't seem like it matters how stupid and cranky and contrary McCain is, nothing he does wrong sticks to him while everything Obama does right is cause for outcry.

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kent-allard-jr.livejournal.com

I dunno, none of McCain's blows seem to be doing much damage either.

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Including suggesting that Obama is the antichrist. In fact, that seems to be putting off hardcore evangelicals, who see it as dangerous to suggest that someone who's obviously not the antichrist might be.

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I doubt it. Ohio and Iowa will both go to Obama. If nothing else changes, that gives the dems the win handily. If he takes Colorado and NM (which he's projected to), that's even better.

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I think New Mexico is a near lock. More so than any of the other states you mention.

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Obama is pretty popular here in Iowa. I'm not really sure why, but people here really seem to like him a lot. And it was a close loss in 2004 (called for Gore at first, I think).

I don't think the more populated northern half of Ohio is going to let what happened in 2004 happen again. I could be wrong there though.

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I don't think the more populated northern half of Ohio has any choice in the matter.

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In my nonexpert opinion, it's much easier to fake an election with closer results.

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edgehopper.livejournal.com

Right, because it was the Republicans' fault that the duly elected Democrats in charge of Cuyahoga County screwed up the lines in 2004. I grew up here; it doesn't take some scary right-wing conspiracy to make our county government act like idiots.

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That was sort of my point.

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edgehopper.livejournal.com

Well, it's more of a wild card. I don't think Obama has a chance in OH, though--it's not a young state, and he's going to lose rural Democratic counties that went more for Gore and Kerry. It's also not as good a year as 2004 or 2006 for the Dems, since this time around, they're the ones corruptly in charge of state government.

I expect Obama will pick up a small state or two that Kerry didn't, and I'm going to continue making my prediction: The winner of the presidential election will be best 2 out of 3 among the MI-OH-PA corridor. I'll go further and predict that MI will be the scary swing state that holds up the call in November, playing the role of OH in 2004 and FL in 2000. Traditionally a state that slightly favors Democrats, but in a year that the Dems have nominated a candidate that's weaker than average in the Midwest, aren't seating MI delegates at the convention, and most importantly have been in charge of a truly horrendously managed state govt. (and they have an alleged violent felon running Detroit), the GOP has a chance to win the state.

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avram

According to Electoral-Vote.com, recent polling says:

MI: Obama 47%, McCain 40%
PA: Obama 46%, McCain 41%
OH: McCain 45%, Obama 43%

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edgehopper.livejournal.com

It's still very early, and polls aren't good at capturing the effect of downticket races. I'd say all 3 states are in play, and they'll decide the election.

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I see it similarly, but not quite the same. Assuming the national popular vote is close (not a safe assumption) there are four critical swing states, of which Obama needs two and McCain needs three. They are Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, and Virginia.

Michigan is unpredictable (or at least won't necessarily follow most people's models) because of not only a large, resented Black city, but also because of its large Muslim population. I expect Obama to win it if the country is near 50-50, but the margin could be surprisingly large or it could go for McCain. Pennsylvania will be Obama's, unless he's doing poorly all over.

As for Obama not having a chance in Ohio, I think you're just wrong. Obama will do better among non-fanatic social conservatives than Kerry did, by a significant margin. He will do worse in White suburbs of racially tense metropolitan areas. And he will have higher turnout in Black cities. My guess is you're encountering the relative shift to the GOP in northern suburbs and not taking into account the other two changes. I'm not claiming Obama will win the state, but I am claiming that anyone who thinks they know how Ohio will go is premature.

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