J. Sidney McCain III is going to win

[bigscary]

And there's little to nothing anyone reading this can do about it. I expect the eventual electoral map to look identical (at most two states different, and if that a swap that gains (D) at most an electoral vote or two) to 2004.

Comments

[slackwench.livejournal.com]

I doubt it. Ohio and Iowa will both go to Obama. If nothing else changes, that gives the dems the win handily. If he takes Colorado and NM (which he's projected to), that's even better.

[barking-iguana.livejournal.com]

I think New Mexico is a near lock. More so than any of the other states you mention.

[slackwench.livejournal.com]

Obama is pretty popular here in Iowa. I'm not really sure why, but people here really seem to like him a lot. And it was a close loss in 2004 (called for Gore at first, I think).

I don't think the more populated northern half of Ohio is going to let what happened in 2004 happen again. I could be wrong there though.

[bigscary.livejournal.com]

I don't think the more populated northern half of Ohio has any choice in the matter.

[slackwench.livejournal.com]

In my nonexpert opinion, it's much easier to fake an election with closer results.

[edgehopper.livejournal.com]

Right, because it was the Republicans' fault that the duly elected Democrats in charge of Cuyahoga County screwed up the lines in 2004. I grew up here; it doesn't take some scary right-wing conspiracy to make our county government act like idiots.

[bigscary.livejournal.com]

That was sort of my point.

[edgehopper.livejournal.com]

Well, it's more of a wild card. I don't think Obama has a chance in OH, though--it's not a young state, and he's going to lose rural Democratic counties that went more for Gore and Kerry. It's also not as good a year as 2004 or 2006 for the Dems, since this time around, they're the ones corruptly in charge of state government.

I expect Obama will pick up a small state or two that Kerry didn't, and I'm going to continue making my prediction: The winner of the presidential election will be best 2 out of 3 among the MI-OH-PA corridor. I'll go further and predict that MI will be the scary swing state that holds up the call in November, playing the role of OH in 2004 and FL in 2000. Traditionally a state that slightly favors Democrats, but in a year that the Dems have nominated a candidate that's weaker than average in the Midwest, aren't seating MI delegates at the convention, and most importantly have been in charge of a truly horrendously managed state govt. (and they have an alleged violent felon running Detroit), the GOP has a chance to win the state.

[avram]

According to Electoral-Vote.com, recent polling says:

MI: Obama 47%, McCain 40%
PA: Obama 46%, McCain 41%
OH: McCain 45%, Obama 43%

[edgehopper.livejournal.com]

It's still very early, and polls aren't good at capturing the effect of downticket races. I'd say all 3 states are in play, and they'll decide the election.

[barking-iguana.livejournal.com]

I see it similarly, but not quite the same. Assuming the national popular vote is close (not a safe assumption) there are four critical swing states, of which Obama needs two and McCain needs three. They are Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, and Virginia.

Michigan is unpredictable (or at least won't necessarily follow most people's models) because of not only a large, resented Black city, but also because of its large Muslim population. I expect Obama to win it if the country is near 50-50, but the margin could be surprisingly large or it could go for McCain. Pennsylvania will be Obama's, unless he's doing poorly all over.

As for Obama not having a chance in Ohio, I think you're just wrong. Obama will do better among non-fanatic social conservatives than Kerry did, by a significant margin. He will do worse in White suburbs of racially tense metropolitan areas. And he will have higher turnout in Black cities. My guess is you're encountering the relative shift to the GOP in northern suburbs and not taking into account the other two changes. I'm not claiming Obama will win the state, but I am claiming that anyone who thinks they know how Ohio will go is premature.

[barking-iguana.livejournal.com]

And of course, Obama's massive investment in field operations in Florida may yet turn that around, though I think there's a only about a 2/7 chance.

And when you say Obama is particularly weak in the Midwest, I think you have to specify which Midwest. He is weak on the Great Lakes region and strong (compared to other Democratic presidential candidates, anyway) in the Great Plains.

[wellgull.livejournal.com]

Ohio was called for Gore in 2004?

There *is* something fishy with those electronic voting systems! :)