J. Sidney McCain III is going to win

[bigscary]

And there's little to nothing anyone reading this can do about it. I expect the eventual electoral map to look identical (at most two states different, and if that a swap that gains (D) at most an electoral vote or two) to 2004.

Comments

[barking-iguana.livejournal.com]

I see it similarly, but not quite the same. Assuming the national popular vote is close (not a safe assumption) there are four critical swing states, of which Obama needs two and McCain needs three. They are Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, and Virginia.

Michigan is unpredictable (or at least won't necessarily follow most people's models) because of not only a large, resented Black city, but also because of its large Muslim population. I expect Obama to win it if the country is near 50-50, but the margin could be surprisingly large or it could go for McCain. Pennsylvania will be Obama's, unless he's doing poorly all over.

As for Obama not having a chance in Ohio, I think you're just wrong. Obama will do better among non-fanatic social conservatives than Kerry did, by a significant margin. He will do worse in White suburbs of racially tense metropolitan areas. And he will have higher turnout in Black cities. My guess is you're encountering the relative shift to the GOP in northern suburbs and not taking into account the other two changes. I'm not claiming Obama will win the state, but I am claiming that anyone who thinks they know how Ohio will go is premature.