I dunno, out of 4 extremely close, undisputed elections (1880, 1884, 1960, 1968) the EC and PV winners were different in only 1 of them. I'm not saying it can't happen this time, but I just wouldn't put must weight on state polls this far in advance when more national surveys are conducted than in individual states, and trend lines can be more easily detected. I'll look at electoral vote projections the week before Election Day, and worry about them then.
I understand the sources of error in these surveys, but I prefer not to assume their biased one way or another (baring clear evidence to the contrary). Doing so provides too many opportunities to discount unpleasant news.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2008-09-12 07:24 pm (UTC)I understand the sources of error in these surveys, but I prefer not to assume their biased one way or another (baring clear evidence to the contrary). Doing so provides too many opportunities to discount unpleasant news.