I think the margin of common error (primarily due to cell-phone voters and the unkown efficacy of the field campaigns, espeically Obama's) is significanltly greater than McCain's margins in national polls.
Further, one of the reasons there have been so few elections where the popular vote went one way and the EC the other is that there have been relatively few elections that were very close in popular votes. A cross-outcome like that isn't likely, because chances are someobeody will win the popular vote by at least 3%. But within 3%, the chance becomes significant. The following graph is based on simulations run from June polling data, so it wouldn't look quote the same now. But the general spread is interesting.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2008-09-12 05:53 pm (UTC)Further, one of the reasons there have been so few elections where the popular vote went one way and the EC the other is that there have been relatively few elections that were very close in popular votes. A cross-outcome like that isn't likely, because chances are someobeody will win the popular vote by at least 3%. But within 3%, the chance becomes significant. The following graph is based on simulations run from June polling data, so it wouldn't look quote the same now. But the general spread is interesting.