Well, it's more of a wild card. I don't think Obama has a chance in OH, though--it's not a young state, and he's going to lose rural Democratic counties that went more for Gore and Kerry. It's also not as good a year as 2004 or 2006 for the Dems, since this time around, they're the ones corruptly in charge of state government.
I expect Obama will pick up a small state or two that Kerry didn't, and I'm going to continue making my prediction: The winner of the presidential election will be best 2 out of 3 among the MI-OH-PA corridor. I'll go further and predict that MI will be the scary swing state that holds up the call in November, playing the role of OH in 2004 and FL in 2000. Traditionally a state that slightly favors Democrats, but in a year that the Dems have nominated a candidate that's weaker than average in the Midwest, aren't seating MI delegates at the convention, and most importantly have been in charge of a truly horrendously managed state govt. (and they have an alleged violent felon running Detroit), the GOP has a chance to win the state.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2008-08-16 04:40 am (UTC)I expect Obama will pick up a small state or two that Kerry didn't, and I'm going to continue making my prediction: The winner of the presidential election will be best 2 out of 3 among the MI-OH-PA corridor. I'll go further and predict that MI will be the scary swing state that holds up the call in November, playing the role of OH in 2004 and FL in 2000. Traditionally a state that slightly favors Democrats, but in a year that the Dems have nominated a candidate that's weaker than average in the Midwest, aren't seating MI delegates at the convention, and most importantly have been in charge of a truly horrendously managed state govt. (and they have an alleged violent felon running Detroit), the GOP has a chance to win the state.