I'm not discounting anything. I would say that if there's a large error, it's probably undercounting Obama's likely vote. But I'm not at all convinced there is such a large error. My point is that even relatively small errors are larger than McCain's reported margin, so we can't have justified confidence in suppositions of who would win, if the election were held now. At even money, I'd bet on McCain. But I don't think I'd give 3-2. And since we're still in the period that was expected to have a small, temporary bounce for McCain, David's Chicken Little routine is just silly.